Be Safe and Have a Great Day. TSA Cares!

Just ran across these wire stories today (NPR, CNN) about the recent travel regulations the TSA is imposing on some direct flights into the US, once more proving that TSA Cares! Reading these stories, it reminds me of a number of other questions I have concerning where recent US social trends are headed. But let’s not get into those for now. Instead, let’s just think about the TSA and these latest issues. Are they good, bad or whatever?

The party line so far on this appears to be something like the following:

“As the traveling public knows, all electronic devices are screened by security officers. During the security examination, officers may also ask that owners power up some devices, including cell phones. Powerless devices will not be permitted onboard the aircraft. The traveler may also undergo additional screening.

TSA will continue to adjust security measures to ensure that travelers are guaranteed the highest levels of aviation security conducted as conveniently as possible.”

TSAFor more details, we need to go to the actual government news release on the new TSA “enhanced security measures.” Sadly the official TSA/DHS media coverage so far is pretty awful, at least in terms of any real useful news. We are hearing way more from the TSA about the “border problem” and increased detention facilities in the Southwest than we are about these new security measures.

Here’s the official statement from the Secretary of DHS Johnson. It’s worth quoting in full, given how short it is.

DHS continually assesses the global threat environment and reevaluates the measures we take to promote aviation security. As part of this ongoing process, I have directed TSA to implement enhanced security measures in the coming days at certain overseas airports with direct flights to the United States. We will work to ensure these necessary steps pose as few disruptions to travelers as possible. We are sharing recent and relevant information with our foreign allies and are consulting the aviation industry. These communications are an important part of our commitment to providing our security partners with situational awareness about the current environment and protecting the traveling public. Aviation security includes a number of measures, both seen and unseen, informed by an evolving environment. As always, we will continue to adjust security measures to promote aviation security without unnecessary disruptions to the traveling public.

As news coverage noted, “American intelligence officials have been concerned about new al-Qaida efforts to produce a bomb that would go undetected through airport security. There is no indication that such a bomb has been created or that there’s a specific threat to the U.S.” Recent reports suggest that Apple iPhones, Samsung Galaxy devices and shoes are being actively targeted as possible threats, and a CFR baqckgrounder noted in August of 2013 that “indications of an AQAP-sponsored plot led to the closure of more than two dozen U.S. diplomatic facilities across the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia.”

Justifications?

 

It does make one wonder, however, when do “seen and unseen” actions justified by “situational awareness” require some level of public scrutiny and approval? It’s a question worth considering, especially given recent global terrorism trends–which is what the DHL is referring to when they talk about the “global threat environment.” Or more specifically Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

Al Qaeda in Arabian PeninsulaOne security analysis provided a bit more context, suggesting “the changes were based on new intelligence on terror groups trying to build new types of improvised explosives that are harder to detect,” and citing Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as the main threat source.  So in other words, African bomb makers are getting more sophisticated–which is not new, but does signal changing tactics evolving to new technology. Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, former chief bomb maker (underwear bomber designer) for AQAP, apparently has some understudies he left behind.

If you’ve been even half-following world news the last few years you should already know we have been conducting unmanned drone strikes in Yemen since at least 2002. AQAP is no stranger to the US, and the US even has an official three-pronged strategy for dealing with the country:

  1. Fight AQAP
  2. Increase development assistance
  3. Support international stabilization efforts

And you might not realize it, but over half of Gitmo is filled with Yemenis–although it’s unclear how many are militants and how many are civilians wrongly detained. We have also killed an estimated 600+ militants in Yemen since 2002. Recall that these are the same guys who brought us the “Underwear Bomber” a few years ago, as well as the attack on the USS Cole in Sana’a. The recent global surge of Sunni militants across much of Africa and the Middle East, and increasingly now in Central Asia, and what you get is a very uneasy US/UK security establishment.

 

AQAP fighters

 

It’s unclear from the various security blogs I’ve reviewed why these new TSA security measures are being put into place now, as news reports cite no specific new threats. Some rumors also suggest that Islamist Nusra Front, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, has been testing out new bomb technology while fighting in Syria, and may soon turn those new devices towards the foreign front. Add to this the fact that the conflict in Syria is seeing more American and European citizens heading off to jihad. And then round this picture out with a seemingly unstoppable ISIS/ISIL takeover of northern Iraq and merging with the Syrian southern border front. One can imagine this explosion of Sunni Islamic militant victories sweeping across Iraq and Syria, as well in northern Africa, are scaring the piss out of folks in DC and Virginia, and hence likely responsible for these escalating security measures.

ISIS Releases Global Takeover Map

ISIS Releases Global Takeover Map

Given current global geopolitics, it seems unlikely that things are going to improve anytime soon in Africa or the Middle East. Assuming that, it also seems pretty likely that we will be looking at a perpetual future of escalating “enhanced security measures” in the coming years as these activities targeting the US continue to grow in strength and breadth. Eventually the result will be another open war between the US and lord knows who? The huge swath of black on the map above? That’s not really a war we can ever win, so the real question, it seems to me, is what are countries like the US doing to address this growing threat besides drone strikes and proxy mercenaries–cause neither of those strategies seems to be working.

As Azmat Khan noted in her discussion of the US policy in Yemen, the rapid rise of Yemeni terrorism in recent years has a lot to do with official US foreign policy there:

What’s behind the rapid rise? There are some who argue that America’s ramped up drone and air strikes in Yemen since 2009 play a role in driving up recruitment. A series of on-the-ground reports in The Washington PostThe Times of London, NPR and The Nation suggest that, in certain places and in response to particular strikes that have resulted in civilian casualties, the strikes are driving recruitment or sympathy for Al Qaeda. (Perhaps the most-cited is the Dec. 17, 2009 strike in Majala that killed a number of civilians.)

So as long as the plan is to just do more of the same, Americans better get used to steadily more invasive ” enhanced security measures,” because we can be pretty sure that AQAP and their allies have no plans to slow down.

Until next time… don’t forget that pre-flight battery recharge or you might be spending extra time in TSAville.

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